Friday, May 16, 2014

Greece will soon be returning to growth, Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras said on Thursday (May 15), while addressing the Greek-German Chamber of Industry and Commerce. Stournaras stressed that the economic adjustment achieved, corresponded to an unprecedented 19.4 % of GDP; he added that there was no other example of a country that achieved something similar in such a short period. He further pointed to figures by Greece's statistical authority ELSTAT on GDP growth in the first quarter of 2014, concluding that Greece is expected to return to positive growth rates after six years of recession.
  • Greek Economy Shrank 1.1 % in Q1‏
The Greek economy contracted by 1.1 % in the first quarter of 2014, a development paving the way for the end of an economic recession that lasted 23 successive quarters, finance ministry officials said.

The officials noted that a slowdown in the recession rate by around five percentage points within 12 months (the country's GDP shrank by 6.0 % in the first quarter of 2013) confirmed an estimate for an economic growth of at least 0.6 % this year. This estimate is based on expectations of higher economic activity in the second and third quarters of the year, helped by a boost in tourist arrivals in the country.
  • No Retroactive Tax on Foreign Bondholders
The Greek government denied it had instituted a retroactive tax on foreign holders of Greek bonds, and revoked a tax document that spooked investors and sent yields to near two-month highs.

Traders cited a document detailing a retroactive tax on non-resident holders of Greek bonds as the reason for Greek 10-year bond yields shooting up; the ministry however, later in a statement, said it had revoked the document. Greek officials clarified that the document - a government circular - had only sought to clarify that the previous tax regime of 33% on foreign legal entities and 20 % on individuals had been abolished starting this year.
  • Greece is Top in Reforms
In terms of reforms, Greece tops the list, ranking by a significant margin, followed by Ireland (No. 2), Estonia (No. 3), Spain (No. 4) and Portugal (No. 5), according to the Euro Plus Monitor Spring 2014 Update, the latest installment of the bi-annual competitiveness ranking published by Berenberg and the Lisbon Council, an important think-tank. To measure how much countries have done, the Lisbon Council employed the expertise of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD): the OECD identifies five prioritized areas for reform for each member country every year. In each of these areas, it makes a number of concrete recommendations and subsequently measures whether these have been followed up or not.
See also Greek News Agenda: Greece Is Changing