Friday, November 9, 2012

On November 7, the European Commission released its European Economic Forecast for Autumn 2012 under the title Autumn Forecast 2012-14: Sailing in Rough Waters.

According to the report, the short-term outlook for the EU economy remains fragile, but a gradual return to GDP growth is projected for 2013, with further strengthening in 2014.

On an annual basis, GDP is set to contract by 0.3% in the EU and 0.4% in the euro area in 2012, while in 2013 the GDP growth is projected at 0.4% in the EU and 0.1% in the euro area. On the contrary, unemployment in the EU is expected to remain very high. Particularly on Greece, the report forecasts that the turning point of the recession is expected in the second half of 2013, leading to moderate GDP growth of 0.6% in 2014.

The labour market, though, is expected to bottom out in 2013 and recover only slowly thereafter, with the unemployment rate at around 22% in 2014.